Does the Danube exist? Versions of reality given by various regional climate models and climatological datasets

We present an intercomparison and verification analysis of several regional climate models (RCMs) nested into the same run of the same Atmospheric Global Circulation Model (AGCM) regarding their representation of the statistical properties of the hydrological balance of the Danube river basin for 1961-1990. We also consider the datasets produced by the driving AGCM, from the ECMWF and NCEP-NCAR reanalyses. The hydrological balance is computed by integrating the precipitation and evaporation fields over the area of interest. Large discrepancies exist among RCMs for the monthly climatology as well as for the mean and variability of the annual balances, and only few datasets are consistent with the observed discharge values of the Danube at its Delta, even if the driving AGCM provides itself an excellent estimate. Since the considered approach relies on the mass conservation principle and bypasses the details of the air-land interface modeling, we propose that the atmospheric components of RCMs still face difficulties in representing the water balance even on a relatively large scale. Their reliability on smaller river basins may be even more problematic. Moreover, since for some models the hydrological balance estimates obtained with the runoff fields do not agree with those obtained via precipitation and evaporation, some deficiencies of the land models are also apparent. NCEP-NCAR and ERA-40 reanalyses result to be largely inadequate for representing the hydrology of the Danube river basin, both for the reconstruction of the long-term averages and of the seasonal cycle, and cannot in any sense be used as verification. We suggest that these results should be carefully considered in the perspective of auditing climate models and assessing their ability to simulate future climate changes.Comment: 25 pages 8 figures, 5 table

Lightning Prediction Using Recurrent Neural Networks

Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS), Kennedy Space Center (KSC), and Patrick Air Force Base (PAFB) all reside in the thunderstorm capital of the United States. According to the Florida Climate Center, these installations experience more thunderstorms per year than any other place in the United States. It is the mission of the 45th Weather Squadron to provide timely and accurate warnings of weather conditions such as lightning that pose a risk to assets and personnel CCAFS, KSC and PAFB. To aid 45th Weather Squadron forecasters, a network of 30 Electric Field Mills (EFM) was installed in the area in and around CCAFS, KSC, and PAFB. EFMs record the electrification of the local atmosphere. Several efforts have been made over the years to find an optimal way to utilize the EFM network data to improve lightning prediction. These efforts approached the problem using atmospheric science as well as traditional statistical regression techniques with mixed results. In this paper, hourly statistics were generated from the raw EFMs data set used in Hill [1]. Input variables were generated from surface observations from every station within 50 miles of CCAFS and then combined with the EFM statistics for the same time periods. This combined data set was used to create Long Short-term Memory (LSTM) Neural Networks designed to capture trends within the data for each observation. A variety of different LSTM model structures were created and trained to see which model structure performed best when predicting lightning around CCAFS, KSC, and PAFB. By utilizing design of experiments techniques, optimal parameters for the LSTM model structures are narrowed down providing a solid baseline for future endeavors in predicting lightning

Sistema interativo de suporte ao licenciamento ambiental e sua integração com sistemas locais via Serviços Web.

Este trabalho descreve brevemente as ferramentas disponibilizadas pelo Sistema Interativo de Suporte ao Licenciamento Ambiental (Sisla), um sistema desenvolvido para auxiliar governos estaduais na tomada de decisão quanto ao licenciamento ambiental, apresentando, principalmente, como realizar a sua integração com sistemas locais que controlam o fluxo de processos de licenciamento ambiental. Como caso de uso, foi utilizado o Sistema Imasul de Registros e Informações Estratégicas do Meio Ambiente (Siriema) (SIRIEMA..., 2010), no âmbito do Estado de Mato Grosso do Sul. A principal contribuição deste trabalho é demonstrar a facilidade de integração do Sisla com qualquer sistema que controle o fluxo de processos no âmbito estadual ou municipal via Serviços Web, independente do ambiente de programação e sistema operacional em que forem desenvolvidos.bitstream/item/32398/1/ComTec103.pd

Modeling of morphology evolution in the injection molding process of thermoplastic polymers

A thorough analysis of the effect of operative conditions of injection molding process oil the morphology distribution inside the obtained moldings is performed, with particular reference to semi-crystal line polymers. The paper is divided into two parts: in the first part, the state of the art on the subject is outlined and discussed; in the second part, an example of the characterization required for a satisfactorily understanding and description of the phenomena is presented, starting from material characterization, passing through the monitoring of the process cycle and arriving to a deep analysis of morphology distribution inside the moldings. In particular, fully characterized injection molding tests are presented using an isotactic polypropylene, previously carefully characterized as far as most of properties of interest. The effects of both injection flow rate and mold temperature are analyzed. The resulting moldings morphology (in terms of distribution of crystallinity degree, molecular orientation and crystals structure and dimensions) are analyzed by adopting different experimental techniques (optical, electronic and atomic force microscopy, IR and WAXS analysis).Final morphological characteristics of the samples are compared with the predictions of a simulation code developed at University of Salerno for the simulation of the injection molding process

Ferramenta computacional para auxílio à análise técnica de processos de licenciamento ambiental utilizando geotecnologias.

Este trabalho descreve a elaboração de uma ferramenta computacional para auxílio à análise técnica de processos de licenciamento ambiental, com o uso de geotecnologias. Essa ferramenta constitui mais um módulo do Sistema Iterativo de Suporte ao Licenciamento Ambiental ? SISLA e está em fase de testes pelos técnicos do Instituto de Meio Ambiente de Mato Grosso do Sul (Imasul). Para o desenvolvimento desse módulo, foram utilizadas ferramentas já bastante difundidas no campo das geotecnologias e computação, como o I3Geo/MapServer, linguagem de programação PHP e banco de dados PostgreSQL com extensão espacial (PostGIS). A grande vantagem de sua utilização se dá pelo fato de todas as áreas mapeadas para o processo de licenciamento ambiental em questão serem carregadas ao mesmo tempo. Além disso, outros temas disponíveis no SISLA também podem ser carregados em conjunto com esses mapas, possibilitando ao técnico visualizar a existência de áreas protegidas pelo governo próximas ou até mesmo que avançam na área da propriedade ou do projeto de licenciamento. Em trabalhos futuros, pretende-se agregar a esse módulo uma ferramenta para auxílio à tomada de decisão para gestão e monitoramento de regularização ambiental, com base nas leis e resoluções definidas pelo governo.Geopantanal 2010

Adaptação de ferramenta de relatório geoespacial para Zoneamento Ecológico-Econômico da Amazônia Legal.

A ferramenta "relatório", objeto deste trabalho, foi programada originalmente para realizar consultas de terras particulares no Mato Grosso do Sul, via um sistema de informação geográfica web chamado Sistema Interativo de Suporte ao Licenciamento Ambiental (Sisla). O objetivo deste trabalho é adaptá-la para uma função similar no Projeto de Zoneamento Ecológico-Econômico da Amazônia Legal (ZEEAL)